World Models have vastly permeated the field of Reinforcement Learning. Their ability to model the transition dynamics of an environment have greatly improved sample efficiency in online RL. Among them, the most notorious example is Dreamer, a model that learns to act in a diverse set of image-based environments.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Autonomous robotic navigation in real-world environments requires exploration to acquire environmental information as well as goal-directed navigation in order to reach specified targets. Active inference (AIF) based on the free-energy principle provides a unified framework for these behaviors by minimizing the expected free energy (EFE), thereby combining epistemic and extrinsic values. To realize this practically, we propose a deep AIF framework that integrates a diffusion policy as the policy model and a multiple timescale recurrent state-space model (MTRSSM) as the world model. The diffusion policy generates diverse candidate actions while the MTRSSM predicts their long-horizon consequences through latent imagination, enabling action selection that minimizes EFE. Real-world navigation experiments demonstrated that our framework achieved higher success rates and fewer collisions compared with the baselines, particularly in exploration-demanding scenarios. These results highlight how AIF based on EFE minimization can unify exploration and goal-directed navigation in real-world robotic settings.

World Models have vastly permeated the field of Reinforcement Learning. Their ability to model the transition dynamics of an environment have greatly improved sample efficiency in online RL. Among them, the most notorious example is Dreamer, a model that learns to act in a diverse set of image-based environments. In this paper, we leverage similarity search and stochastic representations to approximate a world model without a training procedure. We establish a comparison with PlaNet, a well-established world model of the Dreamer family. We evaluate the models on the quality of latent reconstruction and on the perceived similarity of the reconstructed image, on both next-step and long horizon dynamics prediction. The results of our study demonstrate that a search-based world model is comparable to a training based one in both cases. Notably, our model show stronger performance in long-horizon prediction with respect to the baseline on a range of visually different environments.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure.

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is critical for safe and efficient autonomous driving, especially in mixed traffic environments when both human-driven and autonomous vehicles co-exist. However, uncertainties introduced by inherent driving behaviors -- such as acceleration, deceleration, and left and right maneuvers -- pose significant challenges for reliable trajectory prediction. We introduce a Maneuver-Intention-Aware Transformer (MIAT) architecture, which integrates a maneuver intention awareness control mechanism with spatiotemporal interaction modeling to enhance long-horizon trajectory predictions. We systematically investigate the impact of varying awareness of maneuver intention on both short- and long-horizon trajectory predictions. Evaluated on the real-world NGSIM dataset and benchmarked against various transformer- and LSTM-based methods, our approach achieves an improvement of up to 4.7% in short-horizon predictions and a 1.6% in long-horizon predictions compared to other intention-aware benchmark methods. Moreover, by leveraging intention awareness control mechanism, MIAT realizes an 11.1% performance boost in long-horizon predictions, with a modest drop in short-horizon performance. The source code and datasets are available at https://github.com/cpraskoti/MIAT.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events.

Forecasting future events over extended periods, known as long-horizon prediction, is a fundamental task in various domains, including retail, finance, healthcare, and social networks. Traditional methods, such as Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP), typically use autoregressive models to predict multiple future events. However, these models frequently encounter issues such as converging to constant or repetitive outputs, which significantly limits their effectiveness and applicability. To overcome these limitations, we propose DeTPP (Detection-based Temporal Point Processes), a novel approach inspired by object detection methods from computer vision. DeTPP utilizes a novel matching-based loss function that selectively focuses on reliably predictable events, enhancing both training robustness and inference diversity. Our method sets a new state-of-the-art in long-horizon event prediction, significantly outperforming existing MTPP and next-K approaches. The implementation of DeTPP is publicly available on GitHub.

Automating long-horizon tasks with a robotic arm has been a central research topic in robotics. Optimization-based action planning is an efficient approach for creating an action plan to complete a given task. Construction of a reliable planning method requires a design process of conditions, e.g., to avoid collision between objects. The design process, however, has two critical issues: 1) iterative trials--the design process is time-consuming due to the trial-and-error process of modifying conditions, and 2) manual redesign--it is difficult to cover all the necessary conditions manually. To tackle these issues, this paper proposes a future-predictive success-or-failure-classification method to obtain conditions automatically. The key idea behind the proposed method is an end-to-end approach for determining whether the action plan can complete a given task instead of manually redesigning the conditions. The proposed method uses a long-horizon future-prediction method to enable success-or-failure classification without the execution of an action plan. This paper also proposes a regularization term called transition consistency regularization to provide easy-to-predict feature distribution. The regularization term improves future prediction and classification performance. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated through classification and robotic-manipulation experiments.